- Bitcoin hit $100K with futures basis under 15%, showing a rare shift in market behavior.
- The low basis suggests growing stability and less reliance on speculative trading compared to past rallies.
- Data from top exchanges shows consistent trends, hinting at strong interest from institutional investors over leveraged positions.
Bitcoin reached $100,000 in an extraordinary market event, and analysts noticed its futures basis stayed below 15% throughout. This rare phenomenon has raised questions about whether this rally is unlike any before it.
Source: Zaheer
A Different Market Behavior
Bitcoin’s rise to $100,000 has grabbed attention, but the spotlight is on its futures basis levels across top exchanges. Futures basis, which measures the gap between futures contract prices and spot prices, often spikes with major price moves. Past rallies at such high levels have seen basis percentages exceeding 40%, driven largely by speculation and leverage.
This time, data from Binance, OKX, and Deribit shows futures basis stayed under 15%, indicating a possible market shift. It suggests reduced reliance on speculative trading and points toward stronger underlying demand in the spot market. The consistency across exchanges shows fewer opportunities for arbitrage, indicating a more uniform market structure.
Furthermore, the subdued basis suggests that institutional buyers could be driving this rally, as their involvement tends to favor spot purchases over leveraged positions. Unlike in 2021, when heavy leverage caused sharp liquidations, this rally seems more stable with less speculative behavior.
Community Response to an Unusual Trend
A viral tweet from analyst Zaheer brought attention to the surprising futures basis trends as Bitcoin soared past $100,000. The image, viewed over 358,000 times, highlighted this unexpected development and sparked widespread conversation in the cryptocurrency community.
Many users expressed confusion about what the low futures basis means, while others saw it as a sign of strong fundamentals. One user even called the chart “insane,” emphasizing the rarity of low futures basis during such a major price increase.
Another user, Pavan Sethi , explained that futures basis below 15% at such high price points is extremely unusual.
captain here
– futures basis = % difference between a futures contract and the spot price
– usually at monumental prices like $100k, you’d see much higher futures basis %, due to a lot of speculation/leverage rather than spot buying
– this suggests that those buying here are…
— pavan sethi (@pavansethi_) December 12, 2024
His observation suggests that Bitcoin’s current rally may mark a change in how the market operates, with reduced dependence on speculative leverage.
A Question for the Market’s Future
Bitcoin’s futures market appears to be changing as low basis levels hint at a more sustainable and matured market structure. Historically, high leverage has been a hallmark of major price surges, but this rally seems driven by long-term demand.
Data from top exchanges shows reduced volatility and consistent market behavior, which points toward broader institutional involvement. This raises a key question: could Bitcoin now be moving toward steady growth based on fundamental interest rather than speculative hype?
