Bitcoin’s halving is scheduled for April 2024 and there are growing expectations and forward-looking forecasting about the future of the crypto market.
However, what is usually the catalyst event for rising prices for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies may also bring with it pitfalls.
Indeed, many cryptocurrency companies may struggle to withstand the significant changes that the industry will face, both on the more technical front and on the economic-financial front.
Hence, what are the most concrete and reliable predictions for the coming halving? Which sectors of the crypto industry are most at risk and which ones will be at an advantage?
All the details below.
Summary
- Bitcoin’s halving expected in April 2024: forecasting crypto bull run?
- Predictions about the future of the crypto market in the wake of halving
Bitcoin’s halving expected in April 2024: forecasting crypto bull run?
With the halving of Bitcoin getting closer and closer there is growing speculation and optimistic forecasting about the evolution of the crypto market over the next 2 years, which will presumably see significant changes in its deep roots.
Indicatively on 19 April 2024, or more precisely at the height of the 840,000 block, the Bitcoin network will execute its 4th halving of miners‘ rewards by going to reduce circulating currency issues.
As planned since the age of time, mining crypto will become even more difficult than it currently is and the concept of “scarcity in the digital sphere” will be even more tangible and verifiable at hand.
The reduction in extractions per block resolution punctually translates every 4 years into an increase in the price of the asset because for the same demand, supply sees a 50% decrease.
This somewhat simplistic narrative does not take into account a long list of variables that could influence the final outcome, but we can say that by looking at past data it has always proven to be more or less accurate.
Bitcoin, in fact, with each halving punctually breaks a new all-time high, going on to mark several multipliers that trigger the frenzy of the entire crypto market.
The 4th Bitcoin halving will happen in 2024.
The 1st halving in 2012 resulted in a 10,000% increase ($11 -> $1,150)
The 2nd halving in 2016 resulted in a 3,000% increase ($650 -> $20,000)
The 3rd halving in 2020 results in a 630% increase ($8,800 -> $64,000)
Notice a pattern? pic.twitter.com/zaqkEJUWmC
— legen (@legen_eth) November 13, 2023
At this round, the forecast tends to remain unchanged, with Bitcoin presumably going to attack the old high located at $69,000 and with a strong probability will manage to meet the round figure of $100,000.
Be careful, however, not to get too caught up in the FOMO: there are in fact several factors to take into account.
1- The real bull run will likely begin AFTER the halving, hence it is still too early to celebrate and shout long blindly
2- With each halving the bull run for Bitcoin may be less and less pronounced because over the years the crypto has been growing in capitalization and becoming an increasingly solid and established asset: to think of seeing 20X increases in its value as happened in 2017 is quite unlikely.
3-History does not always repeat itself, and this time things could be different, either for the better or for the worse.
What is important to keep in mind when making these reflections is that we should not bet in the dark on what will happen to the price of Bitcoin following the next halving by relying on a reduced historical,or popular beliefs.
Indeed, we can read the situation with less fatalism and highlight what are the empirical truths that the on-chain world offers us.
In this regard, an increasingly long-lived network that has not experienced structural problems in recent years, an ever-growing hashrate, and the evolving regulatory landscape that sees a strong growth in institutional interest in the cryptocurrency are among the data that most urge optimistic predictions for Bitcoin’s future.
The halving of rewards is just yet another piece being added to a successful project that has been able to demonstrate over the years its centrality and influence in the conception of digital money
Predictions about the future of the crypto market in the wake of halving
Turning now to a deeper reflection that highlights the effects that Bitcoin’s halving might generate on the broader crypto sector, we can arrive at these cautious predictions.
The halving event, in addition to having a direct and concrete effect in the day-to-day lives of miners, who will have to prepare for a sharp reduction in nominal satoshi revenue, indirectly affects the entire crypto industry.
In fact, the speculative enthusiasm generated after each halving affects even companies that have nothing to do with mining, pushing them to accelerate the processes of launching their products/services with the fear of being left out during one of the most profitable periods ever.
In doing so, many companies sacrifice certain sensitive elements of their designs, such as on the cybersecurity front, in order to take momentary advantage of the market.
This approach often causes quite a few difficulties and lays the groundwork for fertile ground where hackers and malicious individuals can go to strike, potentially going on to ruin the entire project in question.
Another crucial and often overlooked aspect that cryptographic companies should consider is the concept of regulation.
The changing regulatory landscape, with cryptocurrencies increasingly under the scrutiny of global regulators, with particular attention in Europe, necessitates a fundamental change in the way companies operate in the marketplace.
Stricter regulatory oversight means that governments are trying to balance innovation with protecting countries’ financial stability-the entire crypto industry needs to be aware of this momentous shift and adapt so that new regulations in the field can help various businesses emerge rather than crushing the innovation component.
In this scenario, only the most ready and forward-looking companies will survive and be able to overcome what is probably the most voluminous obstacle in the entire history of crypto.
Hence, the halving of Bitcoin, on its upcoming fourth anniversary, will bring with it an ever-expanding market that is searching for its balance point and must conform with the tensions coming from outside.
Making predictions in the chaos of technological and regulatory progress is not easy: what we can observe is that many will fail and will not be able to keep up with the growing challenges the industry will face.
At the same time there will be some who will strengthen their dominance and some who will emerge from nowhere and form the skeleton of the cryptographic society of the future.
