The Bitcoin (BTC) price was moderately disappointing in August, following the drop at the beginning and end of the month.
The broader outlook for the king crypto asset is still bearish, but certain macro-financial developments could alter this outcome.
Up Next for Bitcoin
Bitcoin’s price is hovering under $60,000 at the moment after noting a 7.5% decline over the last week. The coming month could continue this streak until “Uptober” arrives when the investors expect BTC’s recovery to resume.
“September is a historically negative month for Bitcoin, as data shows it has an average value depletion rate of 6.56%. Thus far this month, the investor sentiment around Bitcoin has been negative as the coin has traded between $49,000 and $66,000,” Innokenty Isers, Founder and CEO at Paybis, told BeInCrypto.
However, Isers also factored in the potential for a rate cut, which the macro-financial market highly anticipates.
“Should the Feds cut the interest rate in September, it might help Bitcoin re-write its negative history. This is because rate cuts generally lead to excessive US Dollar flow in the economy. This reduces the Dollar’s purchasing power, further strengthening the outlook of Bitcoin as a store of value. Many institutional investors are already proving this point with massive Bitcoin accumulations. If the Fed’s policies weaken the dollar, switching to risk assets with higher growth potential might be inevitable,” Isers explained.
This outcome falls in line with the macro Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio’s position. The MVRV ratio assesses investor profit and loss. Currently, Bitcoin’s 90-day MVRV stands at -4.8%, indicating profitability and possible buying pressure.
Historically, Bitcoin MVRV between -2% and -12% have signaled the start of recoveries and rallies. These instances were noted in mid-June 2023, early October 2023, and more recently at the beginning of July this year.
Bitcoin MVRV Ratio. Source: Santiment
Since investors tend to capitalize on the low prices, they move to add BTC to their wallets during such instances, marking -2% to -12% as an accumulation opportunity zone. If history repeats itself, BTC would be on track to note an uptick and prepare for a significant increase towards the end of the month.
BTC Price Prediction: Rise Ahead but Not a Breakout
There are two outcomes for Bitcoin’s price in September. The first is a more practical approach based on recent cues, which suggest BTC will remain under $68,300. This barrier has kept the crypto king from breaking out multiple times and considering the bearish conditions, this could happen again.
The second outcome is a breakout from the descending broadening wedge above $68,300. In effect since early March, this pattern suggests a break out could result in a 22% rise. While this is not likely, BTC could establish a new all-time high above $73,800.
Bitcoin Price Analysis. Source: TradingView
For the same, the aforementioned factors of accumulation and interest rate cut must occur, and only a rise above $70,000 would confirm this bullish outcome.
However, if Bitcoin’s price fails to breach even $65,000, consolidation under this barrier and above $57,040 is likely. This could invalidate the bullish thesis, delaying BTC’s rally to early or mid-October.
