Key Points:
- Polymarket punters now estimate a 44% chance Joe Biden presidential campaign will end before November.
- Trump is favored to win with 63% odds and $24.7 million in bets.
- Both Trump and Biden are courting crypto voters, with Trump reversing anti-crypto views and Biden announcing new crypto policies.
Punters on the decentralized blockchain betting platform Polymarket have increased the likelihood that Joe Biden presidential campaign will end before November when the 2024 election results are announced.
Rising Odds of the Failure of Joe Biden Presidential Campaign
Traders now estimate the likelihood of Biden’s withdrawal was 44%, following his performance in the first presidential debate with former President Donald Trump. More than $8.6 million has been bet on this market.
Former President Trump is currently leading with a 63% chance of winning the election, with a total bet of $24.7 million. Biden, in second place, bet $24 million on a second term, although his odds have dropped to 18% since the June 28 debate.
According to Cointelegraph, Polymarket hit $100 million in monthly trading volume in June as users increased their bets on the election outcome. After the first debate hosted by CNN on June 27, which focused on economic plans, abortion rights, immigration, and foreign policy, some political commentators questioned whether Joe Biden presidential campaign should continue or not. During the debate, Biden, 81, appeared to have difficulty with his verdict, while Trump, 78, remained calm, emphasizing his known views on foreign policy and immigration.
Candidates Court Crypto Voters with New Policies
Trump has promised to end what he called Biden’s war on crypto and held a meeting with Bitcoin miners in June, expressing his desire for the cryptocurrency to be “made in America.”
Both recent candidates have targeted crypto voters. Biden announced new positions on cryptocurrency legislative issues such as FIT21 and SEC SAB-121, and launched an outreach campaign with various cryptocurrency companies. Meanwhile, Trump has reversed his previous anti-crypto rhetoric, now supporting Bitcoin mining, cryptocurrency, self-regulation, and opposing CBDCs.
DISCLAIMER: The information on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to do your own research before investing.
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